Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico – Vol. 2

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico – Vol. 2

24 July 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

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INDEX

– M&A Outlook
– Private Equity
– Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis
– Dealmaker Profiles

On 1 July 2020, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) went into effect, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement signed in 1994. The pact reset the commercial relationship between the three North American nations and reaffirmed Mexico’s preferential trade partner status. The visit of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, to Washington a week later to celebrate the signing of the accord demonstrated that the relationship between the two nations isn’t as tenuous as either leader has depicted in their rhetoric, and underscored the co-dependence that unites both countries. 

In their response to the threat of a pandemic, the two leaders have exhibited a remarkably similar attitude: dismissive, contradictory and aloof. Both Mexico and the US have rapidly increased testing for Covid-19 in recent weeks, after initially limiting testing to government labs in March and April. Where the two countries have differed most in their response to the threat of pandemic, is in the release of public funds to shore up liquidity in the markets, with the US distributing trillions of dollars with little oversight or accountability, and Mexico essentially leaving the private sector to fend for itself. Concern over the impact of job losses on the economy is mounting in both countries, alongside a surge in announced Covid-19 cases that puts the US at the top of the chart, followed by Brazil, with Mexico seventh globally, according to official stats. 

The outlook at the beginning of 2020 was good, there was a lot of anticipation associated with the new free trade agreement between Mexico, the US and Canada, but there was also uncertainty, said Greenberg Traurig Shareholder Arturo Pérez-Estrada. The private sector was still jarred after Mexico City’s new airport project was scrapped, but there was cautious optimism after a slow year for M&A leading up to AMLO’s election, and the transactional market had begun to stabilize, with an improving pipeline of deals.

The private sector had a tough time shaking off the jitters after AMLO’s election, agreed fellow Greenberg Traurig Shareholder Víctor Manuel Frías Garcés, as Mexico’s largest companies are accustomed to a cozy relationship with government, and it quickly became apparent that this administration wouldn’t nurture such ties. 

The pipeline of new investments in the country was sparse, as foreign investors remained reserved, but companies that already had a presence in the country were sticking to their plans, Frías said. “We were facing an outlook of slow economic growth. The government’s policies were not directed towards the strata that promotes M&A,” Frías noted.

Since March, the economy has gone from slow to stagnant, overall, similar to what has happened in other markets, particularly in the US, and companies have become very conservative in the face of weak signals of support from the Mexican government, Pérez-Estrada said. The majority of companies have been reorganizing themselves and have put their expansion plans on hold, he added. “The signing of the new free trade agreement was good news, and of course there will be winners in the downturn, from e-commerce to last-mile logistics and manufacturers of health and cleaning products, but almost everybody else is facing obstacles and preserving cash,” Pérez-Estrada said.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the second issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico – Vol. 2

Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4

23 June 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX
– M&A Outlook
– Private Equity
– Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis
– Dealmaker Profiles

Three months after Brazil began to implement its patchwork response to the SARS-CoV-2 threat, dealmakers report widely varying levels of confidence in the strength of an economic recovery as the first half of 2020 draws to a close.

Despite the monumental level of public spending, Brazil has not yet been able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the death toll continues to mount, noted Lefosse Advogados Partner Carlos Mello. 

It’s been three months since Brazilians were encouraged to self-quarantine, some under more strict guidelines than others, depending on the measures deemed appropriate by state governors, who took the health threat more or less seriously, depending on their individual assessment of the risk and their political alignment with President Jair Bolsonaro. 

The authorities allowed many non-essential businesses to continue operating, including industrial production in São Paulo, Mello noted, which could have contributed to a delay in the number of reported Covid-19 cases tapering off.

Social distancing guidelines could be in effect in Brazil until September, and that will naturally create difficulties for the Brazilian market, said Mello, noting the real economy will suffer for a long time. 

We are still in uncharted territory, noted veteran investor and CIO of GOW Capital, João Tourinho, but Brazil is well positioned for a quick rebound thanks to the private savings accumulated over the past four years, that were channeled to corporates seeking capital, whether via the debt or equity capital markets. These savings, he said, have provided unprecedented levels of liquidity to the market, while financial technology has served as an efficient vector, making funding readily available and affordable to credit worthy enterprises. Combined, these factors represent a disruptive force, transforming the way business is carried out in Brazil, Tourinho said.

There is a clear split between the performance of companies that meet the basic needs of society, on the one hand, and those whose products fall under discretionary spending, according to Vinci Partners Head of Financial Advisory Felipe Bittencourt. Consolidation is very likely in those sectors suffering the most, including tourism, aviation, the auto industry, manufacturing and education, Bittencourt said.

Sectors that continue to perform well, meanwhile, include healthcare, services, food, cleaning products, e-commerce and agriculture, Bittencourt said. Deals in these sectors have been proceeding with minimal disruption, he noted.

Vinci closed two transactions following the mid-March lockdown in Brazil, with a third deal reaching an exclusive phase, he said. In the first deal, Vinci was advising a seller of a financial services company, and there was no need to renegotiate terms, he said. In the second deal, Vinci was advising the buyer and the deal value was renegotiated, he added. In the transaction pending close, Vinci is advising the seller in the sale of a construction materials company to a strategic buyer based in the EU. The seller has a specific use in mind for the cash and will exit the business completely, otherwise it wouldn’t have been a good time to sell, he said.

“As advisors we take a conservative approach, we do a lot of technical analysis,” Bittencourt said. “In a period like this, you run different scenarios, the negotiations take a long time.” For those sectors that are suffering, more analysis is required as there’s more risk involved in an acquisition, especially on the buy side, he said. Vinci has other deals underway in the healthcare space, financial services, cleaning products, tourism, automotive and manufacturing, he noted. 

Vinci is fielding calls related to new deal origination that can be split into two groups, Bittencourt said. On the one hand, local companies are studying partnerships, acquisitions and mergers to gain efficiencies and resolve capital structure weaknesses, he said. The economic fallout from measures imposed to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 threat has accelerated these types of discussions, he said.

On the other hand, Vinci is fielding interest from international investors that have been looking at opportunities in Brazil for a long time and consider the currency depreciation advantageous, he said. “They believe it’s a good time to buy assets here for a decent price,” he said, noting those initiatives represented a confluence of the long-term view of these international investors and a situational opportunity.

All the firm’s non-strategic mandates with international financial sponsors, on the other hand, have been put on ice, he said. “They’ve frozen their operations in Brazil.”

Local private equity players, including Vinci’s own fund manager, remain active, however, he said. Local funds have been looking at opportunistic acquisitions while reviewing their own portfolios throughout the crisis, he said.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the fourth issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4.

Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

9 June 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX

CHILE
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

COLOMBIA
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

PERU
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

– The View from Milan
– Dealmaker Profiles

CHILE

Nearly a month after Chile tightened the initial restrictions on movement and business activities imposed in mid-March in Santiago, the minister of health announced on 2 June revised figures for the number of active cases under treatment for SARS-CoV-2, resulting in a decrease from 59,100 to 21,325 and an increase in reported recoveries from some 46,000 to just under 86,000. At the same time, health officials announced the deadliest day with 75 deaths attributed to the virus, bringing the total official death toll to just over 1,200 and 114,000 confirmed cases.

The country avoided a total lockdown from the outset by isolating specific districts with tight quarantines based on an aggressive testing program. This strategy allowed much economic activity to carry on uninterrupted, noted DLA Piper Partner Paulo Larrain.

Notwithstanding, there are industries that have been severely affected, Larrain said. “It’s a very bloody process for many.”

The country was still reeling from the social disruption in October 2019, when protests took over the capital calling for a greater focus on programs geared towards reducing persistent income inequality. “These demands are still pending,” Larrain said, noting the plebiscite on social and constitutional reforms has been relegated to October. 

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

COLOMBIA

As May came to a close, hope for a swift return to a normal life was dashed for Colombians as President Iván Duque extended the period of mandatory self-quarantine through the end of June, while extending the public health emergency through to the end of August. The official death toll in the country attributed to Covid-19 stands at just over 1,000 with some 33,000 confirmed cases.

Under Colombia’s new phase of restrictions imposed to face the SARS-CoV-2 threat, 43 exceptions were granted permitting the reopening of several non-essential businesses, including museums, libraries, malls and hair salons, while limiting those venues to 30% occupancy. Residents of Bogotá remain confined to their homes until 15 June.

The rosy prospects of 3.7% GDP growth projected at the beginning of 2020 have long since faded, replaced by apprehension over the health threat, and increasingly, an economic recession likely to persist for the next several years, Inverlink Managing Partner Mauricio Saldarriaga told TTR. 

“It’s a call to a simpler life,” said Saldarriaga. Inverlink presciently began implementing an internationalization in 2015, joining global boutique investment bank network IMAP and establishing its own footprint across the region. The move paid off, Saldarriaga said, noting the firm grew through several tough years, including 2018, when the presidential election featured a leftist candidate and many investments in the country were put on hold.

Despite Iván Duque’s victory, the following year was much slower than most thought it should be, Saldarriaga said. “People thought that within two months, things would be flying.” When the country finally turned the corner in early 2020 with a robust start to the year such as hadn’t been seen in a long time, with real estate and financial services deals booming, “the little meteor” of SARS-CoV-2 hit, he noted, and the situation changed entirely; many deals were put on hold, frozen. “Some will die, others are in the process of being reactivated, but everybody went into survival mode, to preserve cash.” In general, companies began to focus on reducing costs, “trimming the fat”, Saldarriaga said. 

“Many companies will face difficulties, even those with healthy balance sheets,” he said. Restaurants, hotels, retailers, all commerce has been hit hard, and there are few winners, Saldarriaga said, namely personal care products, household cleaning products and food retail. “That’s about 10% of companies. Then there’s the 60% that have been heavily affected, and the rest that will have difficulty surviving.” 

Colombia will now enter a period of repositioning and restructuring, Saldarriaga said. “We’re in discussions with a lot of providers of capital and getting started with the airlines, construction companies and industrial entities, which were already suffering. This was the final straw. We all know this is temporary, but with an undetermined duration, it’s very difficult to make plans.”

The crisis will cause great difficulty in Colombia and across Latin America over the next 24-to-36 months, he said, noting the region will face a slower recovery owing to the heavy dependence on commodities. “These economies are facing a huge setback, with an enormous impact on the middle class and on spending power. This will be a marathon, not a sprint. Resilience and survival is the name of the game.” 

Colombia’s ambitious 4G program designed to develop the country’s airports, seaports, highways and social infrastructure, was already enduring growing pains Saldarriaga attributed to trying to go “from crawling to running from one day to the next”. The government’s capacity to keep these projects on track and make them a countercyclical engine of growth following this crisis is challenging in the context of the country’s fiscal issues, he said. 

“Infrastructure has become a great lesson in all of this,” he said. The sector was seen as low risk, with low transaction costs, but the these assets are facing a grave impact as tolls evaporate along with traffic through airports, both previously considered predictably stable. It may be a hiccup, Saldarriaga said, and traffic will surely recover, but in the short term, the sector faces a liquidity crunch. “The materialization of risks in the sector will lead to much negotiation with the National Infrastructure Agency (ANI) and a lot of litigation, reclamations and negotiations between the government and concession holders as they hash out how to assign risks in the context force majeure, he said.

“This will be an opportunity for Canadian infrastructure funds, the Brookfields of the world, to recycle capital and keep companies afloat,” Saldarriaga said. Pension funds that have liquidity now can also benefit from the tight situation over the next six-to-12 months in which there will undoubtedly be a lot of distressed M&A and assets that change hands by necessity, he added. “Institutional investors are watching to see how this will play out.”

Colombia’s dependence on oil revenue, which represents nearly 50% of the federal budget, has led to a simultaneous shock that amplifies the economic shock brought about by restrictions imposed to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, Saldarriaga noted. The oil market is distorted and manipulated, and this dependence will make the recovery more difficult, Saldarriaga said. “It obligates us to seek ways to depend less on raw materials and more on value-added products,” he said. The falling value of the Colombian peso makes labor costs and many products more competitive, Saldarriaga added. “These are countries that don’t just need to bounce back, they need to reinvent themselves and bounce back, and we better do it, because oil is surely not a stable bet for the future.” 

Diversifying its revenues beyond oil is an important goal for Colombia, but it’s rightly a medium-term project, Saldarriaga said, given the country is still heavily dependent on extractive resources to improve the standard of living for its citizens. “If we have natural resource wealth, we need to develop it. In the end, it’s what can bring us all prosperity.” The important contribution of hydropower powering Colombia’s electric grid makes the country unique, Saldarriaga pointed out, and balances out to an extent the dependence on oil for fiscal revenue. While the country has indeed put a growing emphasis on renewable energy development in recent years, incentivizing wind and solar, the debate underway in the US and the EU in which proponents are calling for de-carbonization as an engine of growth out of recession is more a first world dilemma at present, he said.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

PERU

On 3 June, the government of Peru extended the country’s health emergency for another three months in the face of the highest death toll in the Andean Region attributed to SARS-CoV-2. The official toll stood at nearly 5,000 with more than 178,000 reported cases. The extension of the declared health emergency is in addition to the state of emergency in place until 30 June.

Peru was among the first countries in the region to implement strict health protocols, ground air travel and impose quarantines and curfews, noted APOYO Finanzas Corporativas Partner Eduardo Campos, “but we were already in a precarious situation”.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

The View from Milan

The Special Report has sections on M&A, Private Equity and Handling the Crisis, as well as a first-hand account from Italy in The View From Milan, featuring EY Italy Managing Partner Tax & Law and Mediterranean Region Accounts Leader Stefania Radoccia.

Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

DealMaker Q&A

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TTR DealMaker Q&A with Rivero & Gustafson Abogados Partner John R. Gustafson

John R. Gustafson – Rivero & Gustafson Abogados: Corporate and Commercial Law, Litigation, Arbitration and New Technologies.

Graduated at the San Pablo C.E.U./Universidad Complutense (Madrid, 1988), John initiated his professional career at the Public Defender’s Office of Albany, New York, and later joined Baker & McKenzie (1991).

TTR – The M&A activity in 2020 is severely affected by the COVID-19 health crisis. How would you describe the situation of the M&A players in Spain at this time?

J. R. G. – Undoubtedly , the current backdrop is not the most conducive to the development and conclusion of operations in the transaction sector. Alongside the adverse consequences of the actual crisis and the uncertainty of its evolution in the short and medium-term, we must also add the purely logistical issues inherent in lockdown itself. With few exceptions, praise must be given for the difficulty that closing transactions entails in this context, the outlook suggests that most transactions are undergoing a sort of hibernation period and waiting for the “storm to pass”.

TTR – Which sectors would you say are more affected by this situation? Which ones do you think are most likely to recover more quickly?

J. R. G. – The most part of all sectors are feeling the effects to a greater or lesser extent. The service sector has a major bearing on the Spanish economy and is being one of the most severely punished, notably in the spheres of transport, hostelry, tourism, leisure and entertainment in which it has been necessary to cease trading under the current circumstances. These are the very sectors that should experience a swifter recovery due partly to having fallen so sharply. Likewise, the healthcare, pharmaceutical, medical and geriatric treatments spheres will awaken the interests of investors to tackle further outbreaks and remedy weaknesses identified during the lowest points of the epidemic.

TTR – What regulatory measures do you think could be deployed to unblock the current situation?

J. R. G. – All aspects that involve boosting the economic flow of investment and endowing flexibility to the markets will lead to benefits in terms of recovery. Admittedly, now is not the time to raise taxes and legislate towards more rigidity in the employment market, moreover the opposite is true. Backing must be given to investment, research and development, along with reforms.

TTR – What is the situation of the M&A market in Spain compared to other nearby countries? Is this stagnation being lived in the same way in other countries?

J. R. G. – Our insight is that activity in Europe and North America is on a very similar footing. The million-dollar question is whether once the progressive de- escalation comes into being, will we be able to advance at the same pace as those best prepared for the future?

TTR – What should we expect in the following months? Do you believe it is still possible to get back to normal in 2020?

J. R. G. – A situation of major downturn in activity is often followed by another of intense activity. I believe that in this case the recovery of activities will take place more progressively. There will be operators who seek out opportunities that will be undoubtedly the result of this crisis, yet the general economic environment will remain troublesome. Everything makes us think that we will have to coexist with this scenario for a while and adapt to the circumstances. It is somewhat difficult to contemplate presently the return to what we have understood as being normal until mid-March, yet that is the direction in which we must move.

Versión en español

John R. Gustafson – Rivero & Gustafson Abogados: Derecho Mercantil, Procesal, Arbitraje y Nuevas Tecnologías.

Licenciado en Derecho por la Universidad San Pablo C.E.U./Universidad Complutense de Madrid (1988) y Doctorando en Derecho Mercantil por la Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, comenzó su andadura profesional en la Oficina del Defensor Público de Albany, Nueva York y después se incorporó a Baker & McKenzie (1991). Ha sido profesor de Contratación Internacional del Instituto de Empresa en el programa Master of International Practice.

TTR – La actividad transaccional en 2020 está sin duda muy marcada por la crisis sanitaria del COVID-19, ¿cómo describiría la situación de los players del mercado transaccional en España estos momentos?

J. R. G. -Ciertamente el entorno no es el mas propicio para el desarrollo y conclusión de operaciones en el sector transaccional. A las consecuencias adversas de la propia crisis e incertidumbre de su evolución a corto medio plazo hay que añadir las puramente logísticas propias del confinamiento. Salvo contadas excepciones, que hay que alabar por la dificultad que entraña cerrar transacciones en este contexto, la percepción es de una suerte de hibernación en la mayoría de los operadores que aguardan a que “pase el temporal”.

TTR – ¿Qué sectores diría usted que se han visto más afectados por esta situación? ¿Cuáles experimentarán una recuperación más rápida?

J. R. G. -La gran mayoría de los sectores se están viendo afectados en mayor o menor medida. El sector servicios con gran peso en la economía española, es uno de los más castigados con especial incidencia en transporte, hostelería, turismo, ocio y entretenimiento que se han visto forzados a dejar de operar en las circunstancias actuales. Estos mismos sectores deberían ser los que experimentaran una recuperación más rápida porque parte de un umbral de caída también muy pronunciada. Del mismo modo el sector salud, farmacéutico, atención sanitaria y geriátrica despertará el interés de inversores en previsión de rebrotes y subsanar debilidades identificadas durante lo peor de la pandemia.

TTR – ¿Qué medidas cree que podrían tomarse a nivel regulatorio para desatascar esta paralización?

J. R. G. -Todo lo que implique incentivar el flujo económico de la inversión y dotar de flexibilidad a los mercados redundará en beneficio de la recuperación. Desde luego no es éste el momento de subir impuestos y legislar hacia la rigidez del mercado de trabajo, sino todo lo contrario. Hay que apostar por la inversión, la innovación, la investigación y el desarrollo. Reformas.

TTR – ¿En qué situación se encuentra España respecto a la actividad transaccional de otros países de su entorno? ¿Esta paralización que vivimos se traslada de igual manera a otros países?

J. R. G. -Nuestra percepción es que la actividad en Europa y Norteamérica está en rangos muy similares. La pregunta del millón es si una vez iniciada la progresiva desescalada seremos capaces de avanzar a la misma velocidad que los más preparados.

TTR – ¿Qué cabe esperar que suceda en los próximos meses? ¿cree usted que se podrá recuperar la normalidad en 2020?

A una situación de fuerte caída en la actividad suele seguir una de actividad intensa. Creo que en este caso la recuperación de la actividad tendrá lugar más progresivamente. Habrá operadores buscando oportunidades que sin duda dejará tras de sí esta crisis, pero el entorno económico general seguirá siendo complicado. Todo hace pensar que tendremos que convivir con este entorno durante un tiempo y adaptarnos a las circunstancias. Es difícil contemplar, a día de hoy, un retorno a lo que hemos entendido como normalidad hasta mediados del pasado mes de marzo, pero en esa dirección debemos ir.

Informe Mensual México – Mayo 2020

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Mercado transaccional en México cae un 25% hasta mayo de 2020

En mayo se han registrado 11 transacciones en el país por USD 145,65m 

A lo largo de 2020 se han registrado 99 transacciones  

Adquisiciones extranjeras en Tecnología e Internet han disminuido un 50% en 2020 

Sector Financiero y de Seguros, el más destacado del año con 16 operaciones

El mercado de M&A en México ha contabilizado en mayo de 2020 un total de 11 fusiones y adquisiciones, entre anunciadas y cerradas, por un importe agregado de USD 145,65m, de acuerdo con el informe mensual de Transactional Track Record.  

Por su parte, en los cinco primeros meses del año se han producido un total de 99 transacciones, de las cuales 44 registran un importe conjunto de USD 2.779m, lo que implica un descenso del 25% en el número de operaciones y una disminución del 60,60% en el importe de estas, con respecto al mismo período de 2019.  

En términos sectoriales, el Financiero y de Seguros ha sido el más activo del año, con un total de 16 transacciones, seguido por el de Internet, con 15.  

Ámbito Cross-Border  

Por lo que respecta al mercado cross-border, a lo largo de 2020 las empresas mexicanas han apostado principalmente por invertir en Estados Unidos, con 11 operaciones, seguido de España, con 5 transacciones. Por importe destaca Estados Unidos, con USD 910,95m.  

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Por otro lado, Estados Unidos, es el país que más ha apostado por realizar adquisiciones en México, con 19 operaciones, seguido de Chile y Canadá, con 5 transacciones en cada país. Por importe, se destaca Estados Unidos, con USD 198,32m.

Private Equity, Venture Capital y Asset Acquisitions

Hasta mayo de 2020 se han contabilizado un total de 4 operaciones de Private Equity por USD 73m, lo cual supone un descenso del 55,56% en el número de operaciones y un aumento del 7,98% en el importe de éstas, con respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior.  

Por su parte, en el segmento de Venture Capital se han contabilizado hasta mayo un total de 31 operaciones con un importe agregado de USD 303m, lo que implica un descenso del 13,89% en el número de operaciones y un alza del 132,09% en el importe de las mismas en términos interanuales. 

En el segmento de Asset Acquisitions, hasta el mes de mayo se han registrado 26 operaciones, por un valor de USD 866m, lo cual representa una disminución del 23,53% en el número de operaciones, y un descenso del 62,83% en el importe de estas, con respecto a mayo de 2019. 

Transacción Destacada  

Para mayo de 2020, Transactional Track Record ha seleccionado como operación destacada la inversión de Aztecavo, por parte de HMC, por un valor de USD 145m. 

La operación ha estado asesorada por Nader Hayaux & Goebel Abogados.

Ranking de Asesores Financieros y Legales