Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4

23 June 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX
– M&A Outlook
– Private Equity
– Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis
– Dealmaker Profiles

Three months after Brazil began to implement its patchwork response to the SARS-CoV-2 threat, dealmakers report widely varying levels of confidence in the strength of an economic recovery as the first half of 2020 draws to a close.

Despite the monumental level of public spending, Brazil has not yet been able to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the death toll continues to mount, noted Lefosse Advogados Partner Carlos Mello. 

It’s been three months since Brazilians were encouraged to self-quarantine, some under more strict guidelines than others, depending on the measures deemed appropriate by state governors, who took the health threat more or less seriously, depending on their individual assessment of the risk and their political alignment with President Jair Bolsonaro. 

The authorities allowed many non-essential businesses to continue operating, including industrial production in São Paulo, Mello noted, which could have contributed to a delay in the number of reported Covid-19 cases tapering off.

Social distancing guidelines could be in effect in Brazil until September, and that will naturally create difficulties for the Brazilian market, said Mello, noting the real economy will suffer for a long time. 

We are still in uncharted territory, noted veteran investor and CIO of GOW Capital, João Tourinho, but Brazil is well positioned for a quick rebound thanks to the private savings accumulated over the past four years, that were channeled to corporates seeking capital, whether via the debt or equity capital markets. These savings, he said, have provided unprecedented levels of liquidity to the market, while financial technology has served as an efficient vector, making funding readily available and affordable to credit worthy enterprises. Combined, these factors represent a disruptive force, transforming the way business is carried out in Brazil, Tourinho said.

There is a clear split between the performance of companies that meet the basic needs of society, on the one hand, and those whose products fall under discretionary spending, according to Vinci Partners Head of Financial Advisory Felipe Bittencourt. Consolidation is very likely in those sectors suffering the most, including tourism, aviation, the auto industry, manufacturing and education, Bittencourt said.

Sectors that continue to perform well, meanwhile, include healthcare, services, food, cleaning products, e-commerce and agriculture, Bittencourt said. Deals in these sectors have been proceeding with minimal disruption, he noted.

Vinci closed two transactions following the mid-March lockdown in Brazil, with a third deal reaching an exclusive phase, he said. In the first deal, Vinci was advising a seller of a financial services company, and there was no need to renegotiate terms, he said. In the second deal, Vinci was advising the buyer and the deal value was renegotiated, he added. In the transaction pending close, Vinci is advising the seller in the sale of a construction materials company to a strategic buyer based in the EU. The seller has a specific use in mind for the cash and will exit the business completely, otherwise it wouldn’t have been a good time to sell, he said.

“As advisors we take a conservative approach, we do a lot of technical analysis,” Bittencourt said. “In a period like this, you run different scenarios, the negotiations take a long time.” For those sectors that are suffering, more analysis is required as there’s more risk involved in an acquisition, especially on the buy side, he said. Vinci has other deals underway in the healthcare space, financial services, cleaning products, tourism, automotive and manufacturing, he noted. 

Vinci is fielding calls related to new deal origination that can be split into two groups, Bittencourt said. On the one hand, local companies are studying partnerships, acquisitions and mergers to gain efficiencies and resolve capital structure weaknesses, he said. The economic fallout from measures imposed to mitigate the SARS-CoV-2 threat has accelerated these types of discussions, he said.

On the other hand, Vinci is fielding interest from international investors that have been looking at opportunities in Brazil for a long time and consider the currency depreciation advantageous, he said. “They believe it’s a good time to buy assets here for a decent price,” he said, noting those initiatives represented a confluence of the long-term view of these international investors and a situational opportunity.

All the firm’s non-strategic mandates with international financial sponsors, on the other hand, have been put on ice, he said. “They’ve frozen their operations in Brazil.”

Local private equity players, including Vinci’s own fund manager, remain active, however, he said. Local funds have been looking at opportunistic acquisitions while reviewing their own portfolios throughout the crisis, he said.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the fourth issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 4.

Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

9 June 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX

CHILE
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

COLOMBIA
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

PERU
– M&A Outlook
– Handling the Crisis

– The View from Milan
– Dealmaker Profiles

CHILE

Nearly a month after Chile tightened the initial restrictions on movement and business activities imposed in mid-March in Santiago, the minister of health announced on 2 June revised figures for the number of active cases under treatment for SARS-CoV-2, resulting in a decrease from 59,100 to 21,325 and an increase in reported recoveries from some 46,000 to just under 86,000. At the same time, health officials announced the deadliest day with 75 deaths attributed to the virus, bringing the total official death toll to just over 1,200 and 114,000 confirmed cases.

The country avoided a total lockdown from the outset by isolating specific districts with tight quarantines based on an aggressive testing program. This strategy allowed much economic activity to carry on uninterrupted, noted DLA Piper Partner Paulo Larrain.

Notwithstanding, there are industries that have been severely affected, Larrain said. “It’s a very bloody process for many.”

The country was still reeling from the social disruption in October 2019, when protests took over the capital calling for a greater focus on programs geared towards reducing persistent income inequality. “These demands are still pending,” Larrain said, noting the plebiscite on social and constitutional reforms has been relegated to October. 

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

COLOMBIA

As May came to a close, hope for a swift return to a normal life was dashed for Colombians as President Iván Duque extended the period of mandatory self-quarantine through the end of June, while extending the public health emergency through to the end of August. The official death toll in the country attributed to Covid-19 stands at just over 1,000 with some 33,000 confirmed cases.

Under Colombia’s new phase of restrictions imposed to face the SARS-CoV-2 threat, 43 exceptions were granted permitting the reopening of several non-essential businesses, including museums, libraries, malls and hair salons, while limiting those venues to 30% occupancy. Residents of Bogotá remain confined to their homes until 15 June.

The rosy prospects of 3.7% GDP growth projected at the beginning of 2020 have long since faded, replaced by apprehension over the health threat, and increasingly, an economic recession likely to persist for the next several years, Inverlink Managing Partner Mauricio Saldarriaga told TTR. 

“It’s a call to a simpler life,” said Saldarriaga. Inverlink presciently began implementing an internationalization in 2015, joining global boutique investment bank network IMAP and establishing its own footprint across the region. The move paid off, Saldarriaga said, noting the firm grew through several tough years, including 2018, when the presidential election featured a leftist candidate and many investments in the country were put on hold.

Despite Iván Duque’s victory, the following year was much slower than most thought it should be, Saldarriaga said. “People thought that within two months, things would be flying.” When the country finally turned the corner in early 2020 with a robust start to the year such as hadn’t been seen in a long time, with real estate and financial services deals booming, “the little meteor” of SARS-CoV-2 hit, he noted, and the situation changed entirely; many deals were put on hold, frozen. “Some will die, others are in the process of being reactivated, but everybody went into survival mode, to preserve cash.” In general, companies began to focus on reducing costs, “trimming the fat”, Saldarriaga said. 

“Many companies will face difficulties, even those with healthy balance sheets,” he said. Restaurants, hotels, retailers, all commerce has been hit hard, and there are few winners, Saldarriaga said, namely personal care products, household cleaning products and food retail. “That’s about 10% of companies. Then there’s the 60% that have been heavily affected, and the rest that will have difficulty surviving.” 

Colombia will now enter a period of repositioning and restructuring, Saldarriaga said. “We’re in discussions with a lot of providers of capital and getting started with the airlines, construction companies and industrial entities, which were already suffering. This was the final straw. We all know this is temporary, but with an undetermined duration, it’s very difficult to make plans.”

The crisis will cause great difficulty in Colombia and across Latin America over the next 24-to-36 months, he said, noting the region will face a slower recovery owing to the heavy dependence on commodities. “These economies are facing a huge setback, with an enormous impact on the middle class and on spending power. This will be a marathon, not a sprint. Resilience and survival is the name of the game.” 

Colombia’s ambitious 4G program designed to develop the country’s airports, seaports, highways and social infrastructure, was already enduring growing pains Saldarriaga attributed to trying to go “from crawling to running from one day to the next”. The government’s capacity to keep these projects on track and make them a countercyclical engine of growth following this crisis is challenging in the context of the country’s fiscal issues, he said. 

“Infrastructure has become a great lesson in all of this,” he said. The sector was seen as low risk, with low transaction costs, but the these assets are facing a grave impact as tolls evaporate along with traffic through airports, both previously considered predictably stable. It may be a hiccup, Saldarriaga said, and traffic will surely recover, but in the short term, the sector faces a liquidity crunch. “The materialization of risks in the sector will lead to much negotiation with the National Infrastructure Agency (ANI) and a lot of litigation, reclamations and negotiations between the government and concession holders as they hash out how to assign risks in the context force majeure, he said.

“This will be an opportunity for Canadian infrastructure funds, the Brookfields of the world, to recycle capital and keep companies afloat,” Saldarriaga said. Pension funds that have liquidity now can also benefit from the tight situation over the next six-to-12 months in which there will undoubtedly be a lot of distressed M&A and assets that change hands by necessity, he added. “Institutional investors are watching to see how this will play out.”

Colombia’s dependence on oil revenue, which represents nearly 50% of the federal budget, has led to a simultaneous shock that amplifies the economic shock brought about by restrictions imposed to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2, Saldarriaga noted. The oil market is distorted and manipulated, and this dependence will make the recovery more difficult, Saldarriaga said. “It obligates us to seek ways to depend less on raw materials and more on value-added products,” he said. The falling value of the Colombian peso makes labor costs and many products more competitive, Saldarriaga added. “These are countries that don’t just need to bounce back, they need to reinvent themselves and bounce back, and we better do it, because oil is surely not a stable bet for the future.” 

Diversifying its revenues beyond oil is an important goal for Colombia, but it’s rightly a medium-term project, Saldarriaga said, given the country is still heavily dependent on extractive resources to improve the standard of living for its citizens. “If we have natural resource wealth, we need to develop it. In the end, it’s what can bring us all prosperity.” The important contribution of hydropower powering Colombia’s electric grid makes the country unique, Saldarriaga pointed out, and balances out to an extent the dependence on oil for fiscal revenue. While the country has indeed put a growing emphasis on renewable energy development in recent years, incentivizing wind and solar, the debate underway in the US and the EU in which proponents are calling for de-carbonization as an engine of growth out of recession is more a first world dilemma at present, he said.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

PERU

On 3 June, the government of Peru extended the country’s health emergency for another three months in the face of the highest death toll in the Andean Region attributed to SARS-CoV-2. The official toll stood at nearly 5,000 with more than 178,000 reported cases. The extension of the declared health emergency is in addition to the state of emergency in place until 30 June.

Peru was among the first countries in the region to implement strict health protocols, ground air travel and impose quarantines and curfews, noted APOYO Finanzas Corporativas Partner Eduardo Campos, “but we were already in a precarious situation”.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the third issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

The View from Milan

The Special Report has sections on M&A, Private Equity and Handling the Crisis, as well as a first-hand account from Italy in The View From Milan, featuring EY Italy Managing Partner Tax & Law and Mediterranean Region Accounts Leader Stefania Radoccia.

Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 2

Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico

30 April 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX

– M&A Outlook
– Private Equity
– Equity Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis
– Dealmaker Profiles

Mexico has taken a somewhat unique approach to combatting the “invisible enemy” of SARS-CoV-2. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, actively downplayed the threat posed by the virus , before reluctantly declaring a public health emergency on Tuesday, 31 March. He then advised non-essential workers to stay home, two weeks after much of the world was already locked down. 

“The government was trying to prevent an economic impact, especially on the informal economy, to avoid a social problem,” explained Galicia Abogados Founding Partner Manuel Galicia. 

More recently, AMLO has used his updates to the nation to rail against government bailouts and predatory neoliberal lending practices that only benefit the rich. Mexico’s private sector, he has maintained, shouldn’t hold its breath for a rescue package. 

“We will face the health crisis and the crisis of neoliberalism with a unique approach, one that will protect the majority, especially those in need, the poorest, that will serve everyone,” the president said in his address to the nation on 28 April.

Mexico’s private sector didn’t wait for a bailout. Those able to telecommute did so beginning in mid-March, though schools and restaurants remained open and many went about their daily business as usual until the beginning of April. “There was a situation in which the private sector was behaving one way, and the government another,” said Galicia. Testing was initially only offered in select government labs, before it was extended to private labs, a similar bottleneck faced in the US, noted Serficor IMAP Partner Gabriel Millán.

The Mexican authorities have since issued several decrees granting emergency powers and extended the 31 March quarantine through the end of May. On 23 April health officials announced plans to manufacture ventilators in Mexico in partnership with private entities acting in solidarity in anticipation of a peak in confirmed cases projected for mid-May. 

“The government has been sending strange signals, leaving many perplexed,” said Millán. The slow and dismissive reaction of the president reduced compliance when the stay-at-home orders were finally issued, Millán said, and images of people filling the streets immediately thereafter demonstrated the poor compliance with to “social distancing”, or “sana distancia” as it’s been promoted in Mexico. 

The launch of a super hero character, “Susana Distancia”, by Mexico’s Secretariat of Health didn’t reverse the relaxed attitude held by many, thanks in large part to AMLO’s insistence on greeting supporters with handshakes and hugs as the rest of the world “sheltered in place”, Millán said. “If that’s how people are behaving in Mexico City, the epicenter of contagion in the country, I can assure you that other parts of the country are heeding official health advisories even less.”

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the first issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Mexico

Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 2

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 2

17 April 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX
– M&A Outlook
– Private Equity
– Equity Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis
– Dealmaker Profiles

Latin America’s largest economy has had its share of uncertainty over the past decade, but no previous crisis brought everyday life to such a standstill. Nonetheless, routine fits and starts and two major recessions in the past 10 years tempered the euphoria dealmakers were feeling in early 2020. 

“Things in Brazil tend to be rather volatile,” said Veirano Advogados Partner Carlos Lobo. “You begin each year without really knowing where things are going to go.”

Notwithstanding the characteristic Brazilian nonchalance, spirits were high as prospects looked exceptionally good in early 2020, Lobo said, especially compared to the chaotic start last year that followed the inauguration of President Jair Bolsonaro, which suppressed M&A and capital markets activity in 1H19.

The beginning of 2020 was the opposite, Lobo said. Critical reforms were being pushed through, there was an expectation that Brazil’s GDP would grow by 2%, unemployment was falling and interest rates were low, so there was a positive outlook.

“We were all very optimistic this year in terms of M&A, private equity and equity capital markets,” agreed Reinaldo Grasson, Head of M&A and Debt Advisory at Deloitte in São Paulo. “Companies were delivering good results, they had strong balance sheets, the stock exchange was at an all time high. From all angles it was very, very positive.”

Market conditions in Brazil soured by mid-March however, as the threat of a pandemic prompted state and federal governments to respond by restricting travel outside the home and limiting non-essential business activities. 

March was not bad, all things considered, Grasson said. “Not as good as the previous year, but we didn’t expect this setback.” The transactions being announced now are those that have already been through due diligence, he said. “Our clients, investors are waiting so see what’s going on in the country.”

By mid-April, the federal government had disbursed over BRL 3bn in BRL 600 payments to nearly 5m Brazilians in emergency income support, out of nearly 36m applications received by state bank Caixa Econômica Federal, according to the local press. The support to the country’s most vulnerable population has been matched by a loosening of fiscal targets and labor laws, an extension of tax filing and payment deadlines and specific support to airlines and the tourism industry, among a host of other measures. 

State entities aren’t themselves immune from the downturn facing the country. This reality is most notable in the oil and gas sector, which is reeling from a global price war in addition to depressed demand for refined products. State-owned oil producer Petrobras announced on 15 April it would freeze operations on nearly 50 drilling platforms with some 2,600 direct and another 7,000 indirect jobs at stake. Deal volume in the oil and gas industry is sure to decline precipitously in 2020.

The falling M&A and Equity Capital Markets (ECM) workload is being replaced by matters that have become more pressing for clients at leading M&A law firm Cescon Barrieu, Founding Partner Marcos Flesch said. Litigation consultations, for example, have increased notably, Flesch said, though actual litigation hasn’t picked up yet. Clients are allowing the dust to settle and negotiating amicably with their suppliers and customers in the interim, he said. Cescon Barrieu is also seeing an uptick in consultations related to material adverse change and force majeure issues, Flesch noted.

All areas of Cescon Barrieu are actually working more than what was expected at the beginning of the crisis, noted Managing Partner Joaquim Oliveira. “We were a little bit surprised by the level of activity that we’ve had in the last four weeks.” The firm is bracing for a downturn in the next few months though, Oliveira said, but confidence in a return to normality by late May or June runs high.

M&A Outlook
… Click here to access the second issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Brazil – Vol. 2.

Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region

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Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region – Vol. 1

15 April 2020

TTR’s Transactional Impact Monitor (TIM) is a Special Report combining local knowledge and market visibility from top dealmakers developed to address extraordinary situations affecting the macroeconomic stability and M&A outlook in core markets

INDEX

CHILE
– Private Equity
– Equity Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis

COLOMBIA
– Private Equity
– Equity Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis

PERU
– Private Equity
– Equity Capital Markets
– Handling the Crisis

– The View from Milan
– Dealmaker Profiles

CHILE

Summer vacation was just coming to an end in Chile when the government ordered the closing of non-essential businesses and told citizens to stay inside their homes for an indefinite period of self-isolation on Sunday 15 March. Schools remained closed the next day and Chileans remained homebound until the quarantine began lifting in certain areas on 13 April. Outings required citizens obtain a permit online wherever stay-at-home orders were in place.

Chile faced the business lockdown from the unique perspective of having hosted a destabilizing social upheaval in late 2019, which Carey Partner Francsico Guzmán likened to the “yellow vest” movement in France, in that it had no apparent leader or organized structure.

The social upheaval led to a plethora of tangible demands, including a review of Chile’s constitution, with labor and water rights among the politically sensitive issues surfacing, Guzmán said. 

Investors were cautious in the face of the economic and political uncertainty in 4Q19, he noted. Nonetheless, a strong dollar and cross-border prospects gave Carey a lot of work at the outset of 2020, he said. “That’s when coronavirus hit, and with it a global change.”

Chile was paralyzed by the social movement, and then by the threat of a pandemic, said Guzmán. “The political focus changed from addressing the demands of the social movement to surviving this as best we can,” he said. 

“Fortunately in our case, what we’ve seen is that there’s still work to be done, only the nature of the work is different; it’s more strategic,” Guzmán said. Clients are calling to consult on how best to proceed and to explore restructuring business units, he said.

Renewable energy transactions Carey was working on have continued and even closed in the midst of travel restrictions, Guzmán said, noting this segment had proved particularly resilient to the impacts the crisis was having on Chile.

Retail transactions were held up though, he said. “It’s not as if they’ve fallen apart, but if there was an MOU, the two parties have said, ‘let’s see what happens.’” Retail and infrastructure deals are still being negotiated, but the pace has slowed, he said. “Nobody wants to make a mistake by committing.” More attention is being paid to MAC and force majeure clauses to protect buyers, he noted.

Private Equity
… Click here to access the first issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region

COLOMBIA

In Colombia, 2019 was a strong year for M&A with growth in deal volume in all but the second quarter and significant growth in aggregate value in all but the fourth quarter. The first two months of 2020 began at a similar pace with several transactions underway and a strong pipeline, said Brigard Urrutia Partner Darío Laguado. The energy and health sectors were particularly active, he noted, and in mid-February, the outlook was still good, despite indications of a pandemic on the horizon. Now, there’s absolute uncertainty about the implications of the economic shutdown, and most of all, about the duration of the crisis it has produced, Laguado said. 

On 17 March, the government of Colombia declared a state of emergency and announced a countrywide quarantine beginning on 24 March and extended through 27 April. In Bogotá, the quarantine began on 20 March. “Companies aren’t thinking short-term, they’re thinking immediate-term,” Laguado said. 

Some sectors will take an especially hard hit; in others there will be opportunities, Laguado said. Everything that adapts everyday activities for the virtual world will do well, like food delivery app companies, he noted. On a whole, M&A transactions have been difficult to advance working remotely, however, he said.

There are already cases of airlines filing for bankruptcy protection, with entertainment, hospitality, and restaurants taking the brunt of the impact, and the suppliers to those sectors next in line, Laguado said. Textiles, consumer goods and manufacturing companies are also suffering, while the financial structure of major infrastructure projects has been thrown into question, he added. Roadway and airport infrastructure depends on traffic, and projects could be impacted by such a momentous slowdown, Laguado noted. Other segments haven’t felt such a significant impact yet, but everyone is concerned, he said.

“This caught everybody with their pants down. It’s a very new situation, very unique, and there were no protocols in place,” Laguado said, adding, “The major lesson here is to conserve liquidity.” 

A few of Brigard Urrutia’s deals that were at an advanced stage were signed, including the sale of Electricaribe assets on 30 March. Others have required finessing to protect buyers, Laguado said. A few other deals in industries that were not very affected have also closed, he said, noting transactions that are countercyclical are still moving forward.

The energy sector was hit simultaneously by the oil price war, Laguado noted, which has strained Colombia’s finances. This crisis hits Colombia at a precarious moment in terms of fiscal stability, he noted, which will limit the resources made available for emergency measures. “Everything is in the air with a lot of uncertainty. Clients are putting things on hold,” he said.

“We do see that there will be large M&A deals, but they will be more strategic,” he said, noting the firm was optimistic for a revitalization of the market in 2H20 if the downtime is limited.

Private Equity
… Click here to access the first issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region

PERU

Peru had a very active M&A market over the past 12 months; deal volume grew by 8% in 2Q19 and by 20% in 4Q19 with some very large transactions contributing to a 417% increase in aggregate transaction value in 3Q19, according to TTR data. 

Rubio Leguía Normand was working on about six deals of various sizes in sectors ranging from construction to agribusiness to technology, some worth more than USD 100m, with prospective closings between May and August, Partner Carlos Arata told TTR. 

The measures imposed in the face of the public health threat have put all those deals on hold, he said. “I don’t expect to see any large deals wrapping up in the next six months, except those that were already very close to closing.”

Buyers are saying that the funds they had allocated for acquisitions need to be reserved for contingencies while sellers are saying that their numbers have fallen. People on both sides are taking a “wait-and-see” approach, Arata said. The agribusiness and health sectors will remain the most active in M&A, he noted. 

“The year started out very well; we had a really strong pipeline of deals built from last year,” said Ian Fry Cisneros, Founder and CEO of boutique investment bank UNE Asesores Financieros 

Antitrust regulation that was to go into effect in August 2020 was encouraging companies to get deals done beforehand, Fry said. This had accelerated deal flow, with many transactions being finalized in the first two months of the year and many more scheduled to conclude in 1H20 or early 2H20, he noted.

Like Chile and much of the world, Peru has been under mandatory lockdown since 15 March, with outings outside the home permitted only to restock essentials.

The quarantine interrupted the entire chain of payments throughout the economy, and whereas some companies may have sufficient capital to survive for a few months, many Peruvians live day-to-day, Arata pointed out. “The situation over the next six months is going to be complicated.”

Of the eight deals UNE had in its pipeline, one was a sell-side mandate for food and beverage retailer that operated in airports, Fry noted. It was in the eye of the storm and it came as no surprise when the bidder backed out, he said. “They’re still interested, but they’ll want to have another look once the storm has passed.” The firm has been fortunate to put its other deals on ice rather than have them called off, to be reactivated as soon as possible, Fry said.

Depending on the sector, negotiations are more or less impacted, he said. “It’s probable that there will be adjustments; it’s only natural that the buyer would say that the situation has changed, even if they are still interested,” he said.

Tourism, aviation and entertainment are suffering the greatest impact, he said, whereas agro exporters are still attracting interest. Suppliers to the food manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries need to be kept productive to ensure the supply of essential goods, he said, and these segments will continue to garner interest as they have been permitted to carry on with minimal interruption.

In general, M&A will slow down as buyers wait out the crisis, Arata said, unless they’re sitting on a large pile of cash. Deals could continue to close in the most resilient and stable sectors, like energy and construction, he said, but most sectors will face a sharp downturn.

The government of Peru is expected to invest heavily in public infrastructure to help the economy recover over the coming months, and many firms that were impacted by the scandals in the construction industry will be looking for strategic partners in the months ahead, Arata said.

Private Equity
… Click here to access the first issue of Transactional Impact Monitor: Andean Region